College Football Picks | September 19, 2009

September 19 Top 25 College Football Picks

After looking over this week’s spreads for Saturday’s slate of Top 25 college football games, I have to wonder how betting spreads would change if the guys who sets the lines in Vegas were active college fantasy football players.

For example, Ohio State is currently a 20.5-point favorite over Toledo on Saturday. The game is at Toledo. While this could be perceived as a quasi-home game for the Buckeyes, the three-touchdown edge Vegas is giving THE Ohio State seems awfully high.

Why?

The recent play of Ohio State’s defense
The pain Toledo QB Aaron Opelt has been inflicting on defenses so far this season.

While Ohio State is only allowing 328 yards per game, Navy QB Ricky Dobbs completed 9 of 13 passes and ran for 83 yards in week 1 against the Buckeye D.

Oh yeah, Dobbs also scored 4 times.

Last week, in Toledo’s 54-38 rout of Colorado, Opelt threw 4 TDs and rushed for 2 more while completing just 15 passes. He logged an impressive 428 yards from scrimmage (319 through the air, 109 on the ground) and was only 2 points short of being our Monday Man Crush.

Dobbs’ performance against the Buckeye defense in a largely one-dimensional offense leads me to believe Opelt is in for great game on Saturday. While I wouldn’t expect a 400+ total yard day for Opelt, I do believe the Rockets will cover the 20.5-point spread. Make sure they are on your underdog watch list for this weekend.